Trade Review and Trading Advice for the Euro

The test of the 1.1239 level occurred when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move downward from the zero line, confirming that it was an appropriate entry point for selling the euro. As a result, the pair declined toward the target level of 1.1218.

With no significant eurozone economic data available, the euro was left exposed to geopolitical developments and declined against the US dollar. The Middle East has delivered several unsettling developments in recent days, and these are driving market sentiment today. In the morning, Iranian journalists reported that aircraft were being evacuated from Qatar's Al Udeid Air Base. Reports subsequently emerged that US military personnel and diplomats were secretly leaving the region. Meanwhile, Tehran is preparing for a possible attack by the United States and Israel and has described Washington's diplomatic efforts as insincere. This situation is putting pressure on the euro through several channels. High energy prices are slowing the region's economy and accelerating inflation, while heightened uncertainty is encouraging investors to buy the US dollar. As long as tensions surrounding Iran remain high, the euro is likely to react to every new report and is unlikely to achieve a sustained recovery.

US economic data will be released in the second half of the day. Initial jobless claims are expected to reach 200,000, compared with the previous reading of 199,000. This indicator measures the number of people filing for unemployment benefits for the first time during the week and therefore serves as an early signal of whether businesses are beginning to reduce their workforces. Low readings indicate a resilient labor market, which, in turn, reinforces expectations regarding the Fed's interest rate policy and supports the dollar. The second release will be the Leading Economic Indicators Index, forecast at -0.2%, compared with the previous reading of -0.1% and a previous index level of 99.5 points. This composite index indicates the likely direction of the US economy over the coming months. A modest deterioration is unlikely to alarm the market, but it is also unlikely to provide meaningful support for the euro. Against the backdrop of geopolitical tensions and US economic data, EUR/USD is likely to remain under pressure. For buyers of the single currency to achieve a sustained recovery, either weaker-than-expected US data or positive developments in the Middle East will be needed.

As for the intraday trading strategy, greater emphasis will be placed on implementing Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, the euro can be bought if the price reaches around 1.1226 (the green line on the chart), with a target of 1.1250. At 1.1250, the plan is to close the position and then sell the euro in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 30–35 points from the entry point. A rise in the euro today can be expected if positive news emerges regarding Iran and the United States. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: The euro can also be bought today if the price tests the 1.1209 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward market reversal. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.1226 and 1.1250 can then be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: The plan is to sell the euro after the price reaches 1.1209 (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1175, where the position will be closed and a reverse trade opened immediately by buying the euro, targeting a move of 20–25 points in the opposite direction from that level. Selling pressure could return at any time. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to decline further.

Scenario No. 2: The euro can also be sold today if the price tests the 1.1226 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward market reversal. A decline toward the next levels of 1.1209 and 1.1175 can then be expected.

What the Chart Shows:

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought.
• Thick green line – the estimated price level at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be closed manually, as further gains above this level are considered unlikely.
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold.
• Thick red line – the estimated price level at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be closed manually, as further declines below this level are considered unlikely.
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner Forex traders should exercise considerable caution when making entry decisions. Before the release of major fundamental reports, it is generally best to stay out of the market to avoid exposure to sharp exchange-rate fluctuations. If trading during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, the entire trading account can be depleted very quickly, especially if risk management rules are not followed and large position sizes are used.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the example presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is fundamentally a losing strategy for an intraday trader.