Trade Review and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen

The test of the 159.66 level occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun moving downward from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for selling the dollar. However, the pair did not proceed with any decline.

Today, all attention will be focused on U.S. data and the Federal Reserve's decision. It is expected that the monetary policy authority will keep the interest rate unchanged at 3.75% for the third consecutive time this year. Such stability, if confirmed, will demonstrate the current resilience of the economic system and signal the Fed's intention to wait for clearer changes in inflation and the labor market following the start of the U.S. conflict with Iran in February of this year.

The final highlight will be the last press conference of Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who will step down on May 15. Market participants will look closely at his remarks for clues about the future course of monetary policy, trying to detect signals about how long current rates will be maintained and what factors might lead to their adjustment.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today when the price reaches the entry point around 159.90 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 160.39 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 160.39, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (aiming for a 30–35 point move). Growth in the pair today can be expected if the Fed adopts a hawkish stance.Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of the 159.69 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward reversal. A rise toward the opposite levels of 159.90 and 160.39 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY after a break below the 159.69 level (red line on the chart), which would lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 159.07, where I plan to exit short positions and also open long positions in the opposite direction (aiming for a 20–25 point move). Pressure on the pair will return today if the Fed takes a dovish stance.Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of the 159.90 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 159.69 and 159.07 can be expected.

Chart Explanation

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – estimated level for setting Take Profit or locking in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – estimated level for setting Take Profit or locking in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important Note for Beginner Traders

Beginner Forex traders should make market entry decisions very carefully. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

Remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.