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19.03.202609:35:50UTC+00Italy’s BTP Yields Jump on ECB Rate Hike Expectations

Italy’s 10-year BTP yield has risen above 3.8%, its highest level since April 2025, as markets increasingly anticipate ECB rate hikes ahead of today’s policy decision. The intensifying US-Israeli conflict with Iran has driven a sharp increase in energy prices, erasing earlier expectations of rate cuts and rekindling inflation concerns. Markets are now pricing in more than 55 basis points of ECB tightening by year-end—equivalent to at least two quarter-point increases—with the first hike fully anticipated by June, marking a sharp reversal from pre-war expectations that had leaned toward potential easing.

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